The ruling Christian Democrats of the CDU are clearly leading the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. This is evident from the first predictions of TV channels. The current alliance between the CDU and the FDP will not last.
The Christian Democrats (CDU) appear to remain the largest party in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia, where residents can elect a new regional parliament on Sunday. According to the forecasts of the ARD station, the CDU party can count on 35 percent of the vote. The largest opposition party, the Social Democrats, is expected to reach 27.5 percent. The Green Party has 18.5 percent, the right-wing populist Alternative Party has 6 percent, and the Free Democratic Party has 5 percent, according to a polling day.
The current coalition between the CDU and the FDP led by state Premier Hendrik West cannot afford this outcome. According to the ARD, the projections will lead to the following division of seats in the state parliament: CDU 76 seats, 59 SPD, De Groenen 40, AfD 13 and FDP 11. To form a new coalition, Wüst will have to enter into talks with De Groenen or SPD, now that the The current coalition partner, the FDP, is almost halved.
The FDP may not return to the state parliament of North Rhine-Westphalia, because there is a chance that the Liberals will not cross the 5 percent electoral threshold, according to a DeTageschau report. On the other hand, the right-wing populists of the AfD seem to have reached that threshold, despite losing about 1.5 percent five years ago, the news program said.
The Greens are the biggest winners in the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia. With Mona Neubauer as the top candidate, it has tripled from 6 to 18 percent. Without them, there will be no government in North Rhine-Westphalia unless the CDU and SPD form a broad middle coalition, which is unexpected. The good result of the Green Party election will also be attributed to the high esteem of Green Ministers Robert Habeck and Annalena Barbock in Berlin, says Die Tageschau.
Opinion polls in Germany’s bordering region of the Netherlands are seen as the most important this year. With nearly 18 million residents, North Rhine-Westphalia is the largest state in the country. About 13.2 million people are allowed to vote there. A fickle race was to be expected between the Social Democrats (SPD), who are in power in national politics, and the regionally ruling Christian Democrats (CDU). But this is not the case, it is generally seen as a defeat for Chancellor Olaf Schultz of the SDU party.
North Rhine-Westphalia has always been a social democratic stronghold, but the SPD has been in opposition since 2017, as it was from 2005 to 2010. The CDU became the largest party in the last poll and was allowed to supply the state prime minister. Unlike Schleswig-Holstein, where elections were held earlier this month, the CDU cannot now benefit from a popular prime minister. Wüst was appointed in October due to the departure of Armin Laschet. Laschet went to Parliament in Berlin after being disappointed in the national elections as chancellor.
Sunday’s state elections are the penultimate elections this year. At the end of March, the SPD won an absolute majority in Saarland, and referred the CDU, which had been in power for 23 years, to the opposition benches. In Schleswig-Holstein, where the party actually ruled, the CDU made significant electoral gains at the expense of the SPD. The last vote was in October in Lower Saxony, which borders the Netherlands.
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