Detached from the Union, both the economic and geopolitical interests of the United Kingdom are served by a steady US course.

Started seven years ago The Brexit referendum campaign in the UK. It is longing for a global United Kingdom, promises of British donations flowing back to the National Health System from Brussels, hope for British island borders amid European refugees. The result is well known. In the United Kingdom he is seen as a failure.

Brexit had the misfortune of bad timing. It was disappointing to think of globalizing as an island nation and at the same time organizing globalization ourselves in Europe. Then came Corona. Then the war. The United Kingdom needed Europe and its market more than the other way around. A generation of British politicians, with a long tradition of a conservative ruling party, has fallen prey to that evidence. Large sections of the British establishment succumbed to the subsequent Brexit exorcism. How and when the British can reverse Brexit is becoming increasingly important.

But the timing makes Brexit historic in one area: geopolitics. The Russian invasion of Ukraine emboldened the United States on the European continent and crystallized a major power struggle between the United States and China on a global scale. Freed from European consensus politics, the United Kingdom emerged as America’s ally in a new Cold War strategic framework.

Great Britain is well known NATO is leading the way with the United States in direct military support for Ukraine. The British government also formally supports potential NATO membership for Ukraine. Little known is the parallel strategy of Great Britain and the United States in Asia. The AUKUS alliance joins the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia in an agreement to form the core of a NATO-like alliance in Southeast Asia.

Through the United Kingdom, AUKUS is a Brexit event. Military and security, the alliance is surrounded by a new assertive and pro-Western reality courtesy of the United States in Japan and the Philippines. In terms of trade, it is supported by the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free trade agreement between Japan, Vietnam, Canada, Singapore and Australia, which was expanded late last month by… Great Britain.

Both in Europe, through NATO, Like Asia, Britain is a precursor and extension of America. It’s a role that historically fits Britain like a glove, but it’s hard to play without Brexit. Without Brexit, the UK will not be able to conclude trade deals in Asia. Without Brexit, it will be difficult for the UK to pursue a seamless geostrategic trade with the US. Within the EU, there is more ambiguity about a binary world order shaped by a US-China conflict.

In Germany, trade and industry are national priorities, with war, energy, globalization and climate threatening everything. Germany needs China in this. France has traditionally valued its own geopolitical ambitions, which have not aligned with those of the Americans. President Macron is a true Gaullist who is actually going to Beijing to explore a deal with China. Disengaged from the Union, both the economic and geopolitical interests of the United Kingdom are served by a consistent American course. This is perhaps the most important legacy of Brexit.

Mark de Vos is a strategic consultant, affiliated with Ghent University and Identera in Brussels. www.marcdevos.eu