Russia says it will not cancel the grain deal, but will suspend it. Moscow wants assurances that Ukraine will not use grain lanes in the Black Sea for military purposes. Moscow says this is the case in the recent attack on the Sevastopol naval base in occupied and annexed Crimea. So it seems that the Russians want guarantees that Ukraine will not attack their fleet in the Black Sea, even though they are a military target.
The United Nations is deeply concerned about a possible embargo on those exports. This would push food prices to significant heights again and could lead to social unrest, especially in poor countries. Turkey – a major buyer of grain from Russia and Ukraine – is now trying to negotiate with Moscow to implement the agreement.
Before the Russian invasion in February, Ukraine exported an average of six million tons of grain and corn per month. After the agreement with Russia, this was four million tons last month. Ukraine can also export grain through the Danube river ports or by rail, but that capacity will be limited to 3.5 million tons per month, according to a study.
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