March 29, 2023

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This indicator from the Federal Reserve suggests that the United States may move towards recession

In recent months, Doom reports of an impending recession in the United States have been raining down. According to the Federal Reserve index, the prophets of destruction may be right.

Last week, Tesla boss Elon Musk and US President Joe Biden (again) stood by Knives drawn against each otherBiden openly questioned Musk’s message during a press conference that the economic situation in the United States was nothing but Rosie’s. Many billionaires he recommended 10,000 people Should be dismissed. In the meantime he has returned That resultஅமெரிக்க The US President cited a number of investments from Tesla’s rivals to prove that the United States was not heading for a recession.


Popular indicator of the Federal Reserve, GDPNow From the Central Bank of Atlanta, draws a dark picture. GDPNow monitors economic data Real time Uses them to predict whether the economy is growing or shrinking. According to the index, the US economy will grow 0.9 percent in the second quarter. One week ago, GDPNow forecast a further 1.5 percent growth. This means zero growth, or worse economic recession, is approaching.

Growth expectations, among other things, fell to 4.4 to 3.7 percent in the PCE price index, which measures the cost of personal consumption. There is a bright spot: the US trade deficit narrowed 19.1 percent to $ 87.1 billion between March and April compared to the rest of the world.

A recession is calling on the horizon

However, there was already talk of a 1.5 percent recession in the first quarter. If it’s in the second quarter too, we’re talking about a recession. Nevertheless, many on Wall Street expect a combination of more flexible consumer spending and job growth to keep the United States out of the recession. Have been across the Atlantic Ocean for the past month 390,000 jobs added

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“Now, the recession seems to be just before 2023,” Joseph Brussels, chief economist at RSM, told the U.S. News Agency. CNBC“We need to see future shocks in the business cycle. My feeling is that the economy will be sluggish, but in the long run it will end in 1.8 percent growth.

Another definition is recession

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official assesser of the recession, notes that two quarters of the recession need not be consecutive to talk about a recession. For example, in 2020, there was already a recession after a quarter of negative growth.

The NBER defines a recession as a “significant decline in economic activity that pervades the entire economy and lasts for more than a few months.”

“Most recessions identified by our practices actually have a decline in real GDP for two or more consecutive quarters, but not all of them,” the NBER site said. “There are many reasons for this. First, we do not identify economic activity by indicating real GDP, but take into account the range of indicators. Second, we look at the depth of the decline in economic activity.