It could be in American politics. Earlier this year, a ‘Republican wave’ was predicted in the House and Senate midterm elections. Over the summer, Democrats made a stunning comeback. But they may have peaked too quickly. Only three weeks to go – The Middle Ages November 8th – Republicans seem to have the best documents yet again.
President Joe Biden’s popularity plummeted last spring. Polls show Republicans have a good chance of capturing both the House and Senate majorities. Summer gave the Democratic Party more hope.
The Supreme Court — dominated by conservative justices — decided in June to wipe out the nationwide right to abortion. A majority of Americans disagree. Democrats hoped the chief justice’s controversial ruling would encourage more voters to put their crosses behind the names of Democratic candidates in November. A plan to tighten abortion laws was made mandatory in early August turned down During a poll in the conservative state of Kansas.
For a while it seemed that abortion would become a major political issue Middle Ages.
From abortion to economics
Earlier in the year, the focus was on economic problems affecting large parts of the world, such as high inflation and rising energy prices. The Biden administration has passed some ambitious bills through Congress, including one strategically chosen as the De-Inflation Act. Lower fuel prices have left voters’ wallets less impacted at the gas pump. Biden’s popularity rose steadily from its pre-summer trough.
With the election just three weeks away, the picture looks set to tilt again. Fuel prices have risen again and inflation remains a problem. At the same time, the frenzy over abortion legislation has largely disappeared from the front pages. Republicans campaign mainly around the economy and crime.
Polls show that those two topics are the most important election topics for many Americans. It includes a group that can be a deciding factor in important races: female independent voters. Democratic hopes that they can win on the abortion issue may be dashed.
Democrats seem to be losing the house
There is a persistent belief in American politics that the incumbent president’s party will lose significant seats in Congress in the midterm elections. It’s not always there. For example, this did not happen in 2002 and 2014. But when it does, the loss is often so great that it’s well within memory. Take 2010, when Democrats had to give up 63 seats in the House of Representatives, when President Barack Obama admitted voters had dealt his party a “severe blow.”
If the polling trends that began in September carry over to the polls, Democrats could say goodbye to their majority in the House of Representatives this year. Even if it doesn’t turn out to be a major defeat in 2010, any Republican top brass could make things more difficult for the Biden administration in the final two years of his first term.
The Senate race is hotly contested
In the Senate, Democrats are more likely to retain their narrow majority. It has to do with the fact that only one-third of the Senate seats are reserved compared to all the seats in the House. Additionally, Senate races are about the candidates’ personalities.
Republican candidates include TV personality Dr. Mehmet Oz (Pennsylvania) and former football star Herschel Walker (Georgia) have received the blessing of former President Donald Trump. But they are not seen as a strong option in the fight against the Democratic Party. “The quality of the candidates has a lot of influence on the outcome,” a pessimistic Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate leader, said in mid-August.
It’s important to note that Republicans in the Senate only need a net gain of one seat to break the current Democratic majority. Although both Oz and Walker are slightly behind their rivals, those distances are not as great as some previously thought. So November 8th is going to be busy anyway.
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