Next year we will have to deal with El Niño again. Global warming exacerbates the weather phenomenon, which may lead to unprecedented heat waves. This is evident from the forecasts of the UK Met Office, the British Meteorological Service.
El Niño and La Niña are two opposite weather phenomena that make up El Niño El Nino Southern Oscillation System. It involves a temporary change in wind and sea temperature in parts of the Pacific Ocean. Simply put: El Niño has a warming effect, and La Niña cools the Earth. That’s an average of 0.2 degrees.
La Niña has prevailed for the past three years, but according to the UK’s Met Office, we’ll move into an El Niño later this year, which will push global temperatures to unprecedented levels.
2016 was the warmest year worldwide since the measurements began, and the El Niño phenomenon also played an important role in this. The rate of global warming is currently 1.2 degrees, but according to the UK Met Office, it is very likely that the temperature will rise to 1.5 degrees due to El Niño.
more severe weather
All of this will be accompanied by unprecedentedly severe weather, says Adam Scaife, who heads the agency’s long-term forecasting arm. “We know that climate change will exacerbate the effects of El Niño,” he told the Guardian. And then you also have to take into account the effects of climate change itself, which are also becoming increasingly serious. If you put those two things together, we could see unprecedented heat waves during the next El Niño.”
Earlier forecasts from the UK Met Office said that 2023 would be warmer than 2022. But due to the delayed effects of El Niño, 2024 could be warmer. Climate scientist James Hansen and other researchers at Columbia University in New York have warned about this. We think 2024 will break records and be the warmest year on record. However, according to the analysis, even a little bit of El Niño “should be enough to set record temperatures.”
According to Scaife, it is now important to prepare. “Thanks to science, we can predict this type of phenomenon months in advance. It is important to prepare well. Starting with the readiness of emergency services to plant other crops.”