April 17, 2024

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A military expert fears that the Ukrainian lines will not hold: “Internal explosion is imminent” |  Ukraine-Russia war

A military expert fears that the Ukrainian lines will not hold: “Internal explosion is imminent” | Ukraine-Russia war

Another war has been raging in Europe for two years. The end is not yet in sight. The Swiss magazine Blick is examining the current situation in cooperation with defense specialist Ralph D. Thiel from the German research center ISPSW. He paints a bleak picture of the front line and fears that the Ukrainian lines will not hold. Lieutenant Colonel Tom Simmons also takes into account the “most severe scenario” in which the Ukrainian defensive lines will fail, but in his opinion it is not the most likely scenario.

Ukraine is not only under land, sea and air pressure, but also politically and socially. In addition, the country must also withstand cyberattacks, says Thiel, a military expert at ISPSW (Institute für Strategik-Sicherheits- und Wirtschaftsberatung).

Arms supply shortages and Russia's ever-growing war economy threaten to break the Ukrainian lines. There is even a risk of internal collapse.” Last weekend, Ukrainian forces were forced to hastily withdraw from Avdiivka, and the Ukrainian army is under great pressure elsewhere.

look. The Russian army shows photos of the complete capture of Avdiivka

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed on Monday that the situation in the areas where Russian forces are stationed in Ukraine is “very difficult.”

“There is now a very difficult situation in several parts of the front line, which is exactly where Russian forces have concentrated their maximum reserves,” Zelensky said in his daily video address. The President had just visited the front in the northeast.

He pointed to the lack of additional aid from Western allies as a main reason for Ukraine's difficulties on the front. He added: “The Russians are benefiting from delaying aid to Ukraine and this is a very sensitive issue. We need more artillery, anti-aircraft weapons and long-range weapons.”

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“It's Russia's turn”

Belgian Lieutenant Colonel Tom Simons takes into account the “most dangerous scenario” in which the Ukrainian defensive lines will fail, but in his opinion, it is not the most likely scenario.

“Russia is currently in the lead and gaining more ground, while Ukraine is struggling. Ukraine has always received an infusion of Western aid, but that infusion is now stagnating,” Simons said in an interview with Belga newspaper. “Ukraine should use 2024 To reorganize, rearm, and create new units through mobilization.”


Russia gains domestic advantage from victories rather than operational success. Both sides of the conflict are unable to achieve greater operational victory.

As Simons predicted, the Russians were able to capture the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka last weekend after the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces. “But it may stop there. This does not mean that the Russians will suddenly be in Kramatorsk (an eastern Ukrainian city about 68 kilometers north of Avdiivka, ed.).”

A Russian military vehicle in the destroyed Ukrainian city of Avdiivka. © via Reuters

“The Russians are more numerous and outgunned than many analysts thought. They have old, repaired cars, but they are there and they keep coming,” says Simons. The lieutenant colonel notes that there is little point in mocking or belittling the Russian military. He added: “ This has a negative impact on support provided to Ukraine. “Then it doesn't seem that urgent, when it really is urgent.”

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Simons says 2024 will be a defensive year for Ukraine, as it must take the time to rebuild its army, mobilize new forces and equip the army as best as possible. It is not expected that Ukraine will be able to launch a major attack this year.

After the fall of Avdiivka: can Russia still be stopped? What is Putin's ultimate goal? How about more weapons? Eight Questions by Roger Howson (+)

Putin says in an interview that war is “a matter of life and death.”

look. Zelensky describes the situation on the front as “very difficult”