The Taliban are back in control of Afghanistan sooner than expected. After all, the United States is not such a reliable ally, it is important to the whole world.
The defining geopolitical moment, as the US flight from Kabul took off from Saigon in 1975: The world’s most powerful country was once again defeated by a weak enemy. Then, as now, American critics predicted that such a confusing deviation would motivate their allies to warn their allies. Refugees can expect a new arrival in the West. Countless jihadists will see the divine hand as holy soldiers defeat two powers in Afghanistan: first the Soviet Union and now the United States.
The defining geopolitical moment, as the US flight from Kabul took off from Saigon in 1975: The world’s most powerful country was once again defeated by a weak enemy. Then, as now, American critics predicted that such a confusing deviation would motivate their allies to warn their allies. Refugees can expect a new arrival in the West. Countless jihadists will see the divine hand as holy soldiers defeat two powers in Afghanistan: first the Soviet Union and now the United States. The worst consequences are for Afghanistan. It is one of the poorest countries in the world. If Western aid fails, there is a risk of losing even modest economic and social benefits such as women’s education over the past two decades. Depends on how the Taliban rule. Finally, from 1996 to 2001, they turned the war-torn country into theocratic tyranny. They slashed education and jobs for women and massacred minorities. They housed all sorts of Al Qaeda-led militants who wanted to export jihad around the world. The “emirate” was so disgusting that only Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the Taliban-backed Pakistan recognized it. This time, the Taliban want to show a friendly face. Last week, one of their top executives interviewed a woman on Afghan television – unimaginable in their first era. They show themselves to be very moderate on the street. Obaidullah Bahir, a lecturer at the American University in Kabul, said: “We look forward to many more atrocities. I am pleased with their discipline and respect.” The health minister and the mayor of Kabul will be in their positions, recruiting military experts and pilots to operate the seized equipment. Ashley Jackson, of London’s Overseas Development Corporation Think Tank, said: ” In the short term they will take control. According to Martin von Bijlard of the Network Research Group, Afghan analysts are discussing how the Taliban can strike a balance between ideological purity and the need for education. Mustafa Ben Mesoud, UNICEF’s Field Operations Leader in Afghanistan, says he is “cautious and optimistic”. The question is how long this moderate approach will last. News from some of the captured areas is alarming. In Herat, female university students have been sent home. It has been said that working women should hand over their work to male relatives. Taliban spokesman Jabihullah Mujahid said the media could continue to operate “unless it draws against Islamic values” or “broadcasts against our national interests.” Those who collaborated with the previous government or foreign forces should not be retaliated against. Dozens of government supporters are said to have been assassinated in Spin Bolt on the Pakistan border. In Kandahar, popular comedian Nasser Mohammad was abducted by the Taliban. Kabul is alarmed by reports that the Taliban are hunting down US military translators and Afghan commanders. Western nations are in a difficult position. After their catastrophic defeat, they hope to exert a “moderate influence” on the Taliban, as British Foreign Secretary Dominic Robb said. There are two levers to this: the aid of the new regime and diplomatic recognition. Both are unlikely to work. Iran and Russia, once hostile to the Taliban, now love them. Both countries are experiencing American humiliation. Russia’s ambassador to Afghanistan, Jameer Kapulov, praised their victory: “The Taliban are better at negotiating deals than the previous puppet government.” Pakistan, which the Taliban had praised since its inception, was even happier. “Afghanistan has broken slavery,” said Prime Minister Imran Khan. But the biggest diplomatic trophy for the Taliban is China, which shares a border with Afghanistan. On July 28, on the eve of the end of the US withdrawal, China called the Taliban group “the best military and political force” in Tianjin. Shortly afterwards, Chinese diplomats welcomed the prospect of “friendly and cooperative relations.” Whether that will be the case depends on the Taliban’s attitude towards international jihadist groups. China, for example, is concerned about extremist extremism. The eruption of Islamic extremism is also a fear in Western countries. Spokesman Jabihullah Mujahid sought to allay concerns that Afghanistan would once again become a hotbed of global terrorism, meaning that before 9/11: “We want to assure everyone that Afghanistan will not be used to attack anyone.” But last month, a United Nations panel declared al-Qaeda in 15 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. The local branch of IS is in many places. The Taliban released thousands of prisoners, many of whom were hardline jihadists. U.S. officials believe they can control terrorists with a combination of intelligence and targeted attacks. But soon there will be no military and diplomatic presence in the United States. The survival of the Afghan intelligence service is very unlikely. There are reasons why some other countries are watching the events in Afghanistan with some trepidation. Many historians believe that the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan as the United States weakened after the defeat of Vietnam. This time, China is threatening to take advantage of it. The Global Times, a newspaper run by the Communist Party of China, called the August 16 withdrawal from Afghanistan “an omen for Taiwan’s future.” If the United States is not prepared to inflict several thousand casualties in Afghanistan, it could incur “unthinkable costs” of a possible war on Taiwan. Former Taiwanese Defense Minister Andrew Yang thinks the war in Afghanistan is important for Taiwan: “Let this be a lesson. Taiwan can defend itself, not rely on the United States.” In India, too, there is hope for the victory of Pakistan’s allies and the revival of jihadism. In recent years the country has rallied behind the United States and distanced itself from China, but is now surprised by the incredible nature of the United States. Nirupama Rao, one of India’s leading diplomats at one time, said, “The United States is completely indifferent to what will happen next.” “This has undermined the credibility of US power in the region.” Europeans are angry that the United States has given them a false record. “We have to make our own decisions about US credibility in the Middle East and North Africa,” one diplomat said. Such complaints are not new. Europe has already complained about Barack Obama’s reluctance to intervene in Libya in 2011 and the cancellation of air strikes on Syria in 2013. The betrayal of the United States in 1979 when the Communist Party granted diplomatic recognition to China. Perhaps the real lesson of Vietnam is that we need to look at it from the right perspective. In a short time, American self-confidence was shaken and the country’s enemies cheered. But fifteen years after the defeat in the war waged to stem the tide of communism, the United States won the Cold War and became an unequal world power. The U.S. military, shocked after Vietnam, rebuilt itself as an unparalleled, technologically advanced combat force. Four decades later, Vietnam is a firm partner in the superpower that defeated it. That may be comforting to Americans. But those who believed that the Afghans would save themselves now have little comfort in having to live under the Taliban.
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