Yesterday passed by Dutch analyst PlanB with his counterpart Stock to Flow (S2F) model. while Bitcoin (BTC) Just crossed the $48,000 mark yesterday the worst case scenario From the analyzer is still intactIn a previous interview, the analyst discussed a scenario in which his model no longer holds true. How do we know this?
Basically, the S2F model is very simple. It is simply the total width (stock(divided by annual production capacity)flow). It measures, as it were, the scarcity of a commodity, in this case Bitcoin. The circulating supply (stock) of Bitcoin is about 18.8 million. About 330,000 new bitcoins are added (inflow) every year. Applying the model, we arrive at a stock-to-flow ratio of 52 for bitcoin. Read more about how the form works in this article.
So far, the model has been completely correct in its predictions. With all half After that, the production of new bitcoins decreased. Based on its model, PlanB is clear about bitcoin price predictions. while broadcasting What did bitcoin do? He explains:
“I never had any doubts. I still think Bitcoin will be $100,000 by the end of this year, at a minimum. And there’s still plenty of time. We’re at $40,000 right now. That’s 2.5x. Historically, we’ve done more in a month or two. Two months. So it’s possible. I have every confidence in him… […] I keep seeing people on the internet who keep screaming for a prize of $20,000. I don’t think that will happen.”
But what if his model no longer works? According to the analyst, we will be able to see this easily. He explains:
The stock-to-flow model says we need to increase the stock-to-flow ratio, which has increased since the halving. So we are waiting for that a little bit. But if it stays low – so if we stop at $30, 20, 40K for a few years, a few months – then obviously that linear regression line no longer fits the data. It is very easy to tell when a form is invalid. And people can do it themselves.”
It is important to note that this is just a model. So the form does not always have to remain intact and therefore can break. It is therefore wise not to decide on this model only. Do you need help trading, or do you want to learn more about cryptocurrencies? Become an Insider and try your first 30 days completely FREE!
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