Eurostat predicts that the population of the European Union will decrease by 32 million in 2100, but Belgium will continue to grow inland.

At the start of 2023, the population of the European Union was 451.4 million, according to Eurostat. The statistics office says this was about 5 million more than at the start of 2022, partly due to the “massive influx of refugees from Ukraine into the European Union” after Russia’s invasion of the country. In addition, there has also been a recovery, after the population of the European Union decreased in 2020 and 2021 due to the impact of the Corona pandemic – excess deaths -.

Eurostat expects the EU population to increase for a few more years, reaching a peak of 453 million in 2026. After that, the population will start to shrink, reaching just under 420 million (419.5 million) in 2100. Compared to 2023, This represents a decrease of 7 percent.

Eurostat expects a population increase for Belgium. From 11.7 million at the start of 2023, it will rise to more than 12.5 million in 2100 (+7 percent).

The Census Bureau says it sees a development towards the year 2100 towards a “shrinking and aging society”. The proportion of children and adolescents will decrease, as will the proportion of people of working age (20-64 years). In 2100, half of the European Union’s population was still of working age, compared to 59 percent today. On the other hand, there is more aging in society, with a greater proportion of those over 65 years of age. The number of people over 80 is expected to more than double: from 6 to 15 percent.

Eurostat’s forecasts are based on a range of assumptions for future fertility levels, mortality and migration.