February 28, 2024

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Northwest Europe prepares for a new storm: where, when and how strong will the dinner strike be?  Will this also be with us?  |  Science and the planet

Northwest Europe prepares for a new storm: where, when and how strong will the dinner strike be? Will this also be with us? | Science and the planet

After the snow comes…the storm as shown on weather maps for northwestern Europe. In no time at all we turn from winter weather to turbulent fall weather. Because the real depression, which is now officially called “Isha”, is currently developing across the Atlantic Ocean. Meteorologists have already warned of strong winds that will accompany evening prayers. The British and Irish Meteorological Services have declared code orange for wind and code yellow for heavy rain to fall. But exactly how severe is the storm? Where and when can we expect the most wind? Should we also be afraid for dinner?

“A thaw without rain or wind is not worth starting with,” says the famous weather proverb. Such a statement about the weather could not be more objective. Weather maps are relentless: Last week's winter blast will dissipate and wash away in the coming days. We seem to be turning from winter to fall.

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In the coming days, we will have to contend with a supply of very fine sea air across the Atlantic. © Wackcharts

The air flow is heading to the southwest and from that angle Western Europe will see a supply of very fine sea air across the Atlantic in the coming days. Thus, one depression after another will rush towards our region, bringing with it the necessary winds and rain.

You should be careful of the stormy depression “Isha”, especially on Sunday and Monday. This storm will reach the west coast of Ireland on Sunday and then enter the North Sea through the British Isles and Scotland. The storm will also reach the Benelux countries on Sunday and Monday night and then move to Germany and Scandinavia.

Where did this storm suddenly come from?

The upcoming stormy weather is caused by a very strong jet stream. It is a large air river at an altitude of about 10 to 12 kilometers, dragging depressions in its wake and deepening them further. The jet stream will be very active in the coming days, and wind speeds will reach between 240 and 280 kilometers per hour. A strong jet stream guarantees stormy weather with a lot of wind.

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The jet stream will be very active in the coming days, and wind speeds will reach between 240 and 280 kilometers per hour.  A strong jet stream guarantees stormy weather with a lot of wind.
The jet stream will be very active in the coming days, and wind speeds will reach between 240 and 280 kilometers per hour. A strong jet stream guarantees stormy weather with a lot of wind. © Netweather

The increased jet stream activity is due in part to the outbreak of severe winter cold in parts of the United States and Canada. The polar vortex's swelling of icy cold air near the United States and Canada on the other side of the ocean is in stark contrast to the still very high temperatures in the Atlantic and the associated very soft air mass over the ocean.

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This sharp contrast between very cold air and very soft air is the driving force for the strengthening of the jet stream, which in turn is the driver of the formation of storm depressions.

How severe is the storm and where can we expect the most winds?

Storm Isha is a southwesterly storm and will be accompanied by strong or even very strong wind gusts in many places in northwestern Europe. The storm is set to first reach the west coast of Ireland on Sunday, where it is expected to have the highest wind gusts. On average, there are about 8 to 10 Beauforts in the sea and coastal areas. Wind speeds are currently expected to reach 120 km/h. Reaching a top speed of 130 km/h is not impossible even according to some weather models.

The storm field will then continue to rage across the UK and Scotland throughout the day. There is also caution against wind gusts of up to 120 km/h, especially in the western coastal areas and high areas. The wind speed in the interior areas is expected to reach 100 km/h. There are strong to strong and stormy winds in some areas.

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Wind gusts of up to 120 kilometers per hour cannot be ruled out during Storm Isha.
Wind gusts of up to 120 kilometers per hour cannot be ruled out during Storm Isha. © Wackcharts

The Irish and British meteorological services have already declared code orange for Sunday and Monday due to strong wind gusts. She added: “There is a possibility of a power outage.” The storm may also affect traffic. Therefore, many delays and cancellations to public transport, air traffic and ferry services are expected. In addition to storm damage caused by wind, you should also watch out for gusts and high waves. In the high seas, waves can reach 10 meters in height, and waves can also reach 7 meters in height along the western coasts.

During Sunday night into Monday, Storm Isha will move towards the North Sea as a severe southwesterly storm with an average of 8 to 10 Bft. The wind field will then also reach mainland Benelux, West Germany and Scandinavia. Especially in the Wadden Islands and also along the coast of Denmark, wind gusts of up to 120 km/h can also be expected according to the latest weather maps. In other places, wind gusts appear to be limited to maximum values ​​ranging between 90 and 110 km/h. By Monday evening, it appears that the worst has passed and the storm is weakening further in the European interior.

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Along the western coasts of Scotland, the UK and Ireland, as well as in western Norway, more than 100 liters of water per square meter could fall between Sunday and Wednesday.
Along the western coasts of Scotland, the UK and Ireland, as well as in western Norway, more than 100 liters of water per square meter could fall between Sunday and Wednesday. © Wackcharts

By the way, you don't just have to pay attention to the wind, because Storm Isha will also bring heavy rain. In some places along the western coasts of Scotland, the UK and Ireland, as well as in western Norway, a total of more than 100 liters of water per square meter could fall between Sunday and Wednesday. This means there is a risk of flooding.

Will you storm with us too?

We can also prepare for a turbulent period. Especially on Sunday evening and overnight into Monday, the winds will intensify sharply as the dinner storm passes. There are actually fairly strong winds during the day on Sunday. In the evening and night the wind increases to about 6 or even temporarily from 6 to 7 Bft.

Another storm named Jocelyn may appear on weather maps on Tuesday

This means that the wind will blow strongly, sometimes strong. Wind gusts of up to 90 km/h are currently expected, but some weather models estimate wind gusts of up to 110 km/h during the peak of the storm on Sunday evening and Monday night. There is a possibility that RMI will also announce Code Orange in our country if these forecasts hold. Wind gusts less than 100 km/h are marked in yellow. Since it is a southwesterly storm, it is fortunate that its impact on our coast will be fairly limited. Given the orientation, there is no need to immediately fear storm surge. However, there is a high risk of wind damage due to strong wind gusts.

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Temperatures rose by more than 10 degrees Celsius in less than 24 hours on Sunday
Temperatures rose by more than 10 degrees Celsius in less than 24 hours on Sunday ©WearPlaza

On Sunday we also say goodbye to sunny and cold weather. As the southwesterly winds increase, the snow will begin to melt very quickly and we can expect very mild temperatures again. We even experience real temperature shock. On Sunday we suddenly switch to very mild subtropical air from the Azores. It may still be a little freezing in the morning, but by the evening the temperature will reach double digits again. We will then reach around 10 degrees Celsius. Temperature rises to more than 10 degrees Celsius in less than 24 hours. that's awesome.

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Is there still stormy weather coming in the coming days?

Winter will be hard to find in the coming days. Maximum temperatures of 12 or 13°C are considered to be around very high values ​​for this time of year. Furthermore, we are still experiencing autumn-like and very windy weather with areas of regular rain and strong winds.

Another storm is likely to appear on weather maps on Tuesday. This will be called “Jocelyn”. Ireland, the UK and Scotland in particular should prepare for strong winds again. According to the latest forecast, the storm will mainly target the northern parts of Ireland, the United Kingdom and Scotland with possible wind gusts of up to 130 km/h again. Things remain turbulent for us as well. After a short period of rest on Tuesday morning, the winds will return to activity again on Tuesday and Wednesday evening, with gusts ranging between 70 and 90 km/h.

After Wednesday, the weather seems to gradually stabilize again. At first glance, the turbulent period appears short-lived. We may turn to more stable weather later in the week under the influence of a high pressure area, with light frost at night and comfortably positive temperatures during the day.

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