February 1, 2023

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Polish Defense Analyst: “Everything Points to Belarus Joining the War” | Ukraine and Russia war

“The intensity and scale of Belarusian military activity is the highest since the end of the Cold War,” Konrad Muzyka said. According to the independent Polish defense analyst, everything indicates that the country will get involved in the war in Ukraine.

Muzyka told Sky News that the Belarusian army is still “a bit of a mystery”, adding that the regular forces have been training almost continuously since April.

We have never seen the Belarusian Armed Forces train so much. Since the end of April, they have basically practiced everything needed to enter the war. “The intensity and scale of Belarusian military activity is the highest since the end of the Cold War.”

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They also tested mobilization ability. For example, they recently announced that they have finished updating the data of all Belarusian reservists. This means that the system is now ready to be filled. “Now we have to wait for a political decision to mobilize and go to war,” says the defense analyst.

We don’t know if that will happen, because we can’t look inside the head of Belarusian President Lukashenko. But everything points to Belarus joining the war at some point in the future,” Muzyka says.

File photo of joint military exercises of the Russian and Belarusian armies © AFP

Other observers also fear that Russia wants to involve its ally in the military operation against Ukraine. The Polish defense analyst explains that there are currently between 10,000 and 15,000 Russian soldiers stationed in the country who train regularly alongside the Belarusian Armed Forces. New joint maneuvers also started today.

However, Muzyka stresses that any Belarusian involvement is unlikely to happen anytime soon: “So far, these activities have been limited to training areas and we have seen no indications of any actual movement of Russian or Belarusian forces into the border areas with Ukraine.”

a look. Ukraine conducts military exercises near the Belarus border

New military exercises

Russia and Belarus began military air exercises on Monday. This was reported by the Belarusian Ministry of Defense, stressing that the maneuvers are of a “defensive” nature.

The Ministry of Defense in Minsk reported that “from January 16 to February 1, 2023, tactical air maneuvers will be held on Belarusian territory, in which units of the Belarusian and Russian Air Force will participate.” All airfields and shooting ranges of the Air Force and anti-aircraft defenses of the Belarusian army will participate in the exercises.

“The main objective of the exercise is to enhance operational compatibility” between the two armies, it seems.

Several units of the Russian Air Force have already arrived in Belarus in recent days to take part in the exercises. The number of units involved was not disclosed.

Belarus is one of Moscow’s main allies. At the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine in February last year, Belarus also served as a base for Russian forces. But so far the country has not actively participated in the fighting on Ukrainian soil.

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