He predicted that Donald Trump would become president when no one believed him and was the first to know that Barack Obama would win. Historian Alan Lichtman, now 76, marvels at 40 years of friend and foe.
The battle for the White House will be intense this year. Joe Biden is the oldest presidential candidate ever, and Donald Trump is headed to court this year with 91 impeachments against him.
No crystal ball
To gain insight into Biden and Trump's prospects, EenVandaag met with historian Alan Lichtman on the campus of American University in Washington DC, where he has long taught. His age did not stop him.
Lichtman laughs when asked if he has a crystal ball. Of course not, but the way he predicted the election results so accurately was remarkable. He uses a model that was actually developed to predict earthquakes.
Elections and earthquakes
“In 1981 I came into contact with a scientist from the Soviet Union, Vladimir Keilis-Borok, who was an authority on earthquakes,” says Lichtman.
“He talked about his fascination with elections and was the first to see the connection between political changes and earthquakes. As a Soviet scientist at the time, if you wanted to do anything about elections you would get your head chopped off, so he asked what I could do. I could help him.”
If there is instability, the incumbent party will lose
And so it happened. Within a few years, Lichtman, along with Keilis-Borok, developed a model that predicted elections for years. Since Ronald Reagan's re-election in 1984, they've never been wrong.
Lichtman describes learning to see politics differently. Not as progressive and conservative or Democrats and Republicans, but on an earthquake basis. If there is stability, the incumbent party will be in power. If there is instability, the incumbent party will lose.
'Thirteen Keys to the White House'
The model consists of thirteen decisive factors. Lichtman calls them the 'thirteen keys to the White House'. If there are six or more keys against a candidate, there will be an earthquake and the incumbent will lose.
The model takes into account mid-term election results, social unrest in society, state of the economy and corruption. A large value in the model is whether one of the candidates is already president at that time. This significantly increases his chances.
Not saying Biden would win
Based on the latter in particular, Biden is in good shape. He is running as an incumbent president and has no competition within his own party, which further boosts his chances. That means he already has two 'keys to the White House' in Lichtman's model. But that doesn't mean he will win.
The biggest risks for Biden at the moment are the war in Ukraine and the US economy. Unemployment has never gone down and the economy is growing faster than expected, but the average American doesn't notice.
More can happen
Housing is unaffordable and groceries have never been more expensive. “And then you have the Republicans, who are doing everything they can to find corruption that could get him executed. If they win, Joe Biden's chances are going to go down pretty quickly,” Lichtman says.
But predicting who will win a year before an election is not something Lichtman does. There may be more to it. He makes his prediction 2 months before the election and never tempts anyone. “Polls are daily rates. My prediction is always right and I want to prove it again this year.”
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