Erdogan’s “secret” weapon: this is how he can unleash the navy

The Turkey It has never denied the option of having naval mechanisms capable of taking its aircraft to the operational theaters involved. The crutch is a tool that makes it easier to challenge the rival powers of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, but above all Erdogan is a tool of power and a tool that some call the “naval case”. An obstacle is to show power. For all these reasons – except the fact that Turkey will be one of the few NATO powers to have such a unit at the disposal of its navy – possession of an aircraft carrier is inevitably a fundamental step in Ankara’s entire naval program.

Erdogan never doubted the importance of having an aircraft carrier. It was also precisely from the Ankara defense that the Turkish leader confirmed his desire to equip his fleet with such ships, which initiated two plans to build amphibious attack units to accommodate aircraft. The idea of Turkish Navy Accidents and Priorities Changed – There were two sister ships Anatolia e Thrace, Both Landing helicopter dock Derived from Spanish Juan Carlos I.. Given the financial and strategic basis of Ankara, of course, this is a very ambitious choice, but now it faces a problem of capital importance.

In fact the idea of ​​building these two ships started from a very clear assumption, i.e. these ships were launched later F-35. However, this assumption began with another theory: relations between Ankara and Washington were good – albeit with obvious differences – without affecting the country’s participation in the new militant program. On the other hand, things have taken a very different turn with regard to the initial plans of the Turks and the Americans. Russia, in retaliation for Russia’s purchase of the S-400 and to show dissatisfaction with various Turkish decisions, blocked Ankara from providing the aircraft to reconsider its plans. Anatolia e Thrace.

Outside of NATO – that is, the idea of ​​getting militants from China or Russia or even the idea of ​​launching a national program has not reached Turkey. Especially if the goal is to fully activate the first aircraft carrier in the next few years. Precisely for this reason, at least in the immediate future, everything suggests it Anatolia Equipped with attack helicopters and especially i Armed drones made in Turkey. One of the most intimidating weapons in Erdogan’s arsenal, it has already demonstrated its capabilities not only in Libya, but also in Nagorno-Karabakh and earlier in Syria.

Problems in the construction and commissioning of aircraft carriers Anatolia They give us a clear overall picture of the risks inherent in this Turkish naval restructuring process. After all, the risks are related to political power, the ability to perceive their ideals without seeing them in difficult international isolation. The aircraft carrier was the best film to complete a restoration mission that would end with the Republican century. The Turkish navy, which sank after the fall of the Ottoman Empire, reappeared after a slow process of restructuring to build an aircraft carrier similar to the world’s largest fleet.

But this The first aircraft carrier It was born at a different time as the culmination of the harmony of at least two factors: financial stability and the stability of relations with the United States. The choice to change its geopolitical definitions – shifting the center of gravity of foreign policy towards clear strategic autonomy and strengthening relations with China and Russia – has changed the West’s attitude towards Turkey. It is clear that the NATO domestic navy cannot ignore good relations with its allies. Or, if it does, it accepts opportunities but also carries the risks of such a strategy.

A precedent for this difficult situation in Ankara is that the progressive deviation from the West has so far led to three negative consequences for the naval sector: it has made it very difficult to obtain agreements of a military nature; The United States began secretly preventing the transfer of arms to Turkey; Finally, it is not possible for Angora to have a skilled aircraft carrier within NATO. This requires a clear reflection on the need to maintain even better relations with Turkey United States And Western allies. Ryan Gingeras, a professor at the Naval Postgraduate School and one of Turkey’s leading experts, explained.Another question that remains unanswered is whether the Turkish navy can actually operate independently from its allies. As most of its fleet with new bases and technologies is being tested to a limited extent, it remains to be seen whether Turkish ships will be able to withstand long deployments or combat operations. For this reason, experts still value the Turkish Navy as a coast guard.

This example helps people to understand the complex strategy implemented by Turkey, which is a high risk game. Erdogan wanted to lay the groundwork for Ankara’s progressive isolation in the Mediterranean environment under Euro – US leadership. But at the same time the Turkish leader made it clear that he was not the architect of this new curriculum, and revealed the (violent) flashes of communication with the United States.

However, the outcome is very uncertain, so far, under everyone’s eyes. Turkey wants to be an autonomous power and can do so by showing a politics after all muscles. But the progressive militarization of foreign policy and a strong impetus Mediterranean From the economic and strategic point of view there is a risk that they will hit the wall which will have very serious consequences. A dangerous bet, for now, has yielded favorable results in a very short time, but this may be the real limit to Turkey’s eruption as a force that will actually affect the entire Levant region in the future.