In a television interview with the Ukrainian Public Broadcasting Corporation, Pavlyuk said that the situation on the front is “difficult, but under control.” According to the leader, Moscow has tried in recent months to achieve as much progress as possible in the period leading up to the Russian presidential elections, which begin next Friday. At this stage, Russian attacks will be concentrated at a rapid pace in and around the eastern cities of Avdiivka, Kubyansk, Lyman, and Chasev Yar, west of Bashmut.
Pavlyuk stressed that the Ukrainians would not be discouraged, saying that the Russians were suffering heavy losses in their attacks. He added: “Our mission is to stabilize the front line, kill as many Russians as possible – which is what we are doing – and regroup ourselves so that the units that need help can withdraw.” The forces that could be liberated as a result could attempt to seize the initiative through counterattacks later in the year.
Last summer, the Ukrainians launched a counterattack, but it failed. Since Russia's seizure of Advivka, there has been almost no doubt that Moscow has the upper hand. Therefore, a new major counterattack is unlikely to occur this year and, according to military analysts, it would not be a smart thing to do. President Volodymyr Zelensky also recently said that the main goal for 2024 is to defend Ukrainian territory.
Hold, build and multiply
However, one does not exclude the other. Military strategist Michael Kaufman, an expert on the Russian and Ukrainian armies, also launched the concept at the end of last December.Hold, build and multiplyFor the Ukrainian Army in 2024. The idea of holding the front, rebuilding the army and at the same time carrying out local smart counterattacks fit seamlessly into Pavlyuk's plans.
President Zelenskyy appointed 53-year-old Pavlyuk as commander of the Ground Forces in early February. Pavlyuk previously served as Deputy Defense Minister and replaces Oleksandr Sirsky, who is now the Supreme Commander of the Ukrainian Army.
“Despite the intense fighting, our men continue to hold their positions,” Pavlyuk said. “The enemy's losses are enormous. I believe that we will quickly stabilize the situation and do everything in our power to prepare the forces for more active operations where we can take the initiative.
A few days ago, the British Ministry of Defense also said that Russian losses in Ukraine have never been as high as they were in February: London assumes that an average of 983 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded on the battlefield every day in the past month. The British said: “This increase is certainly a sign of Russia's intention to fight a large-scale war of attrition.” “Whatever the cost in terms of human lives, the result may have increased pressure on Ukrainian positions on the front.”
According to the American Institute for the Study of War, “continued delays in military aid packages from the West” will also mean that Ukraine will have to postpone its attempts to take the initiative. “Material shortages are forcing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to use their equipment sparingly, and uncertainty about future supplies is likely to limit operational planning.”
According to the Institute for the Study of War, “Delays in necessary military support packages will force Ukraine to make difficult decisions about how to allocate its resources in the future between counterattacks and defensive operations against Russian attacks.”
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