The United States is becoming increasingly diverse and urban, but it is aging fast. The results of the ten-year census provoke a brutal reshuffle of political districts.
Of Uninhabitable icebergs in Alaska To the volcanic desert border with Mexico, a decade-long U.S. census took place last year. The results of the logistics mammoth operation, further exacerbated by the corona epidemic, confirm the course of recent decades: white, rural America is disappearing. The United States is increasingly changing, but like Europe, it is suffering from gray hair.
Officially, there are now 331,449,281 people in the United States. This is 22.7 million more than in 2010. That 7.4 percent increase is much slower than the first census of 1790, except for the Great Depression of the 1990s. Govt deaths were not fully taken into account.
- Except for the 1930s, the American population did not grow as slowly as it did in the last decade after the first census of 1790.
- The number of white Americans is declining for the first time. Population growth is caused only by an increase in the number of blacks, Latinos and Asians.
- Based on the census, Democrats and Republicans can redesign constituencies to get the maximum number of seats from their constituency.
On the other hand, the birth rate is declining. For example, the number of Americans under the age of 18 decreased by 1.4 percent, while the number of adults increased by 10 percent. There are now more people over the age of 80 than children under the age of two. This trend mainly affects white people.
50 percent limit
White Americans are still the largest group at 191 million, but for the first time in the country’s history, their numbers are shrinking in absolute numbers (-2.6%). 58 percent now describe themselves as single white. Ten years ago it was 64 percent, and in 2000 it was 69 percent. Demographers have long predicted that the white population will fall below the 50 percent threshold by 2045. It is already present among young people (53%). Example of irreversible evolution: The average age among whites is 44 years, and among Latinos it is 30.
The motor of population growth is exclusively among blacks (+ 5.6%), Latinos (+ 23%) and especially Asians (36%). In California, the most populous state in the United States, Latinos are the first large population group. Surprisingly, the number of Americans reporting two or more racial backgrounds increased by 276 percent. Nevertheless, growth among minorities, partly due to migration, is less strong than in previous decades.
Boumente Sun Belt
Nearly two-thirds of the population now lives in the southern or western state, while many states in the poorest rust belt are shrinking.
Moreover, population growth is exclusively in cities, especially in the southern Sun Belt. With a population of less than 50,000, only 13 percent still live there. Sixty-two percent live in the southern or western state, driven by a growing Latin population, a thriving economy and a warmer climate that attracts the elderly. In 1970 it was less than half. Case: Arizona’s technology hub and Phoenix ‘border town is the fastest growing city. Only New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and Houston are even bigger.
The loss is in the poor northern rust belt. In the old industrial center of the United States – from West Virginia to Ohio and Michigan to Illinois – the population is rarely growing, or shrinking.
Cracking and baking
This wealth of demographic data has major political implications. Based on the census, each of the southern states in particular will soon get a seat in the House of Representatives, while the northern slope will be translated as fewer seats. That trend seems irreversible: fewer billions from the stagnant federal grant pool, with less funding for health care, education, housing, social services and infrastructure in already severely affected states.
After all, a ten-year-old power play called ‘JerryMondering’ is now in practice. By combining the list of party members from the census and voting behavior region-wise, local Democratic and Republican politicians can redesign constituencies to win the most seats with the least number of voters. Enemy voters are spread across as many districts as possible, so their influence will be diluted. Or they are grouped into one district so they only give one seat. In terms of: cracking and baking.
Republicans in particular are so smart that they are able to counter the impact of the declining traditional supporters of the white rural electorate. It controls both the state parliament and the governor’s building in 20 states. Democrats have that omnipotence in only ten states.
That explains why Republicans lost only nine seats in the 435-member Republic last year with less than 5 million votes. Why next year, in the interim, redesigning the borders in the southern states of Florida and Texas is likely to win them a majority in the Assembly.
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