AIf Mark Rutte becomes head of NATO, the Netherlands will be the leading country for most secretaries-general. A 75-year-old Dutchman has been at the top of the organization for 21.5 years. No other country can boast of such a long leadership.
It says a lot about the Netherlands as a key member of the Alliance and the important role of North-West Europe: for 54 of the last 75 years, NATO has been led by men (!) from England, Scandinavia and the Benelux. All the 'Atlantic' countries are still strongly focused on America.
But does it still make sense to maintain this transatlantic relationship? Some commentators already see the writing on the wall: America will disappear as an ally. I personally see a different vision of the future: whoever wins the US elections, America will remain an ally, but at a distance.
There was a time – a very long time ago – when things were different. After the Cold War, under Bill Clinton, the United States did not see the inability of European NATO countries to defend themselves as a major problem. All EU countries cut their defense spending, but America's dominance increased. A foreign ally grew into its role as an inevitable superpower in Europe as well.
Without mincing words
Only the United States was able to end the conflicts in the Balkans – Bosnia (1995) and Kosovo (1999). The fact that the Europeans spent little on defense was not a problem for the Americans at the time, quite the contrary.
That gradually began to change in this century. America's messy and expensive adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan required allies. In addition, Obama, Trump and Biden shifted their focus to Asia; China became their most feared military enemy. Europe had to start looking after itself. Obama politely asked NATO countries to pay more for NATO, a move his successor Trump reinforced without mincing his words. This helped boost defense spending in Europe, but the urgency was felt only after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The US benefits from NATO, where European allies can take a strong and independent stance. America is worried that it will soon have its hands full. Political discussions are now taking place about the desired deployment in Ukraine. Is support for Ukraine a waste of money in light of America's desire to contain China, or does it send a signal to China that aggression will not work? Anyway, it's not about Europe for America.
American soldiers are stationed in Europe
I personally think that the question of US military presence in Europe is not as much of an all-or-nothing question as is often assumed. The US did not simply withdraw from Europe. 62 percent of Americans believe the United States has a duty to defend NATO allies. Yukov EuroTrack+US Survey From last month.
The millions of American soldiers now stationed in Europe cannot be removed as quickly and easily as Donald Trump has as president. Also, there is still a need among Americans to protect their economic interests in Europe.
At the same time, the United States will fulfill its role as Europe's protector differently. The US will no longer lead the offensive as it did in the 1990s, but will often support the Europeans in their own active contributions.
Finally, Article 5, which obliges NATO countries to assist each other, can be addressed in various ways. Giving aid does not mean the Americans will fire nuclear missiles when Russia invades Estonia.
Therefore, regardless of whether or not the new NATO Secretary General Rutte is elected, whether Biden or Trump wins the presidential election, he can play a very important role in developing a different coalition. NATO will not continue without the US (even if Trump makes it more exciting), but the US is not in a supporting and leading role.
James Kennedy is an American historian at Utrecht University. Every week he gives his perspective on Dutch society in Dru. Read more columns by James Kennedy here.
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